Instacart jumps 9% on reports it is exploring a sale; Uber reportedly out

What we know so far

Nothing has been confirmed by Instacart; the story rests on a report by The Information on Friday, and Bloomberg adds that Uber has since walked away. The box above sorts what is confirmed, what is only reported and what nobody knows yet.

The $16–17 billion figure in some headlines is not an offer. It is what Instacart would be worth with a typical takeover premium of 30–40% on Thursday’s market value of about $12 billion, as The Information calculated it.

Friday’s close was Instacart’s highest since it went public in September 2023 at $30 a share. Uber and DoorDash shares each fell about 3.5%; possible buyers’ shares often fall on deal reports when investors worry about overpaying.

Why Instacart might sell now

The business is in good shape, but rivals are crowding into grocery delivery, its main market.

Instacart is growing again and makes plenty of cash. In the second quarter, the value of orders on its platform rose 14% and advertising revenue 16%. It earned $111 million and generated $480 million of free cash flow, much of which it spends on buying back its own shares. It guides to similar growth in the third quarter.

The pressure comes from outside:

• DoorDash and Uber have pushed further into groceries, and Amazon is expanding its 30-minute delivery service, Amazon Now (Reuters).
• Instacart has grown more slowly than DoorDash since its IPO (Investing.com).
• Big grocers are building their own online stores. An eMarketer analyst told Reuters that Instacart “risks getting squeezed” between them.
• Its three largest retail partners account for about 43% of its order value, according to its annual report.

The company also has a new leader. Chris Rogers became CEO in August 2025 after Fidji Simo left for OpenAI, and he became board chair in November.

Who could buy Instacart, and what stands in the way

The two names reported are DoorDash and Uber, and both face the same antitrust problem; every other name is guesswork.

• In our view, DoorDash is the most natural fit: a deal would combine two of the largest US delivery platforms (Reuters). That is also the obstacle. DoorDash held talks to buy Instacart in 2021 at a reported $40–50 billion, and concerns about antitrust approval derailed them (The Information, via Reuters). The same eMarketer analyst says regulators today seem more willing to approve deals, though possibly only if parts of the business are sold.
• Uber already works with Instacart; Uber Eats restaurants can be ordered in the Instacart app. But Bloomberg reports Uber has walked away. It is also busy with a nearly $15 billion bid for Germany’s Delivery Hero.
• No other buyer has been reported. Names like Amazon, Walmart or a private equity firm appear in online speculation, not in reporting.

What a deal could mean for shareholders

Nothing changes for shareholders unless Instacart signs a deal, and most sale explorations don’t end in one.

If a buyer emerges, shareholders would usually receive a fixed price per share in cash, the buyer’s shares, or a mix. The deal would also need approval from regulators and from shareholders.

As arithmetic, not a forecast: a 30–40% premium on Thursday’s $51.68 close would be about $67–72 a share. Friday’s jump to $56.44 already reflects part of that.

The odds are uncertain. In a study of about 1,200 companies that publicly announced they were reviewing “strategic alternatives,” about a third were sold or merged within a year (summarized on the Columbia Law School blog). In the same study, when no deal followed, the initial share-price gains more than disappeared. Instacart hasn’t even announced a review.

Before Friday, analysts’ average price target was about $58 (Yahoo Finance data). That target was based on the business, not on a takeover.

What to watch

The next scheduled event is the third-quarter report on Nov 5. A company statement or a report naming a bidder or a price could come at any time.